AUSTRALIAN CREDIT IS A SHELTER

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Having reached new highs on main developed markets this year, investors should now consider diversification at least to protect realized performance. In this context, we draw attention to the Australian credit market. Australia remains a member of an increasingly elitist group of global AAA credits in a QE-driven world which has become somewhat complacent about fundamentals.

Its economy may no longer be benefiting from the global commodities boom, leading growth to slow, the RBA to cut rates, and the AUD to lose ground, but the medium-term outlook remains sound. And with rates either likely to move down or remains steady, the current economic backdrop lends a strong argument for credit markets.

Looking ahead, the growth outlook is modest but not dire. We expect a shift to modest fiscal tightening after the September election, in fact, as the government aims to bring the economy back to fiscal balance, which should decrease the need for monetary tightening, pushing the rate hike cycle off beyond For those worried about this risk, an FX hedge could be used. Yet, we do not see such imminent weakness, which also reflected a period of less attractive relative rate differentials.

Furthermore, another rate cut would lend upside potential to credit. The Australian fixed income market is expanding quickly. Although the global bond market is twice the size of the global equity market, it is only two thirds of the equity market in Australia. Yet, this is up from one third just 10 years ago. As we very much favor the spread element of fixed income instruments, we focus on credit i. Even if Corporates are slightly re-leveraging, credit quality remains very good on average.

And we believe that even if the resource investment boom driven by LNG is about to peak, a production boom is set to take over: LNG and iron ore may be the leads. So if, admittedly, the mining sector tends to struggle, several other industries could be played e. Away from Corporates, we like the banking sector. As a reminder, ratings agencies recently reaffirmed the strength of the system, whereas they downgraded another AAA-rated banking system i.

Above all, a key element is that deposit growth exceeds credit growth, leading to the banking industry funding needs declining. We believe demand for Australian bonds remains solid, driven by relative value across developed markets. Spreads should tighten by the end of the year. Therefore, we are very constructive on this diversification play.

Credit spreads should tighten, especially when it comes to banks. Go to content Go to menu Go to search. Funds Bonds Investment Investment strategy.